Future Report
A Look At What's Ahead For Photography In 2005...And Beyond Page 3
"In The Year 2010 (Or Sooner, I Hope)"
The future will undoubtedly bring us more and better interchangeable lens digital
SLR cameras and digital backs for medium format cameras. As the world of photography
moves more and more into digital, traditional large format cameras that do not
support digital will fall by the wayside, as will medium format models (already
evident by the demise of Bronica). Canon and Nikon will finally realize the
need for interchangeable digital/film backs for their SLRs, and the early adopters
of this hybrid camera will be photojournalists and stock photographers, along
with commercial photographers shooting on location. The cameras will be a bit
too pricey for the average enthusiast for some years to come.
As for pricing on digital SLRs, based on what we're seeing now, don't
expect prices to drop dramatically, but do expect these cameras to improve enough
over the next few years to make them competitive in every way with 35mm SLRs.
But the consumer will continue to drive the digital market, not so much with
a demand for enhanced technologies as with devices designed to make digital
much more user friendly--and chic. Expect more digital cameras to come
in different "flavors" and to increasingly move away from that unappealing
boxy shape. Portable storage devices will come down in price and size sufficiently
to gain mass appeal, accompanied by a similar shift in portable players, making
them as easy to carry as a compact digital camera.
--Jack Neubart
Good Year For Consumers: Performance Specs Continue To Creep Upward
& Competition Drives Prices Down
Computers will get smaller and the 1.4MB floppy disk drive will disappear from
most machines. Hard drives will reach 3/4 of a terabyte and optical drives (CD-ROM
and DVD) will record even greater amounts of data. Ink jet printers will get
faster and
flat-bed scanners will have higher levels of dynamic density. In other words,
performance specs for just about everything will continue to creep upward.
Unfortunately, there are no major technological breakthroughs about to happen.
The quality of tech support will continue to decay as large corporations struggle
to wring profits from a highly competitive marketplace. All in all, it will
be a good year for consumers as market competition will continue to drive prices
downward.
Many regional museums will start exhibiting old-fashioned wet darkroom products
since their owners will not be able to find buyers for the antique stuff that
they will want to unload. Three, maybe four other people besides myself will
be willing to publicly proclaim that digital imaging is actually superior to
old-fashioned wet chemical photography.
--Darryl C. Nicholas
Black And White Or Bleak And Fright?
Mega-dealers Freestyle in Los Angeles report record black and white sales, especially
in the important school market. Kentmere (who coat paper for Luminos among others)
have just had the best month in their company's 100-year history. Fotospeed's
sales are booming: again, ask Luminos. Guy Gerard of Bergger says, "I
am a happy man." Rollei introduces the Rollei R3 line of film and chemicals.
And, of course, Agfa, Arista, Efke, Foma, Fuji, Kodak, Konica, Lucky China,
Maco, Paterson, Polaroid, and Tura are still producing and/or selling film or
paper or both for black and white photography. At photokina in September at
least two consortia were looking to buy coating lines for paper and film. There
is no lack of enthusiasm: reports of the death of black and white are, in Mark
Twain's immortal words, greatly exaggerated.
It's true that both Ilford and Forte went into receivership (Chapter 11)
in the last quarter of 2004, but in October Ilford was still coating and shipping
film and paper, and production of Ilford photographic chemicals had apparently
been licensed: their financial position was good enough after three weeks in
receivership that several buyers were sniffing around. Forte had temporarily
stopped coating but should be back on stream by the time you read this; they
have also attracted interest. All is far from lost.
What can you do to keep your choices as wide as possible? Buy film. Use it.
Replace it. Shoot, shoot, and shoot some more. Go in the darkroom. Make prints.
This is what photography is about, after all: not new cameras, but making pictures,
using your favorite medium. The future is in your hands. Don't listen
to anyone who tells you different.
--Frances E. Schultz
Reinvention Will Be Key To Survival
Photographers have always had to reinvent themselves to survive. Today the corporate
structure has created more and more IBM and The New York Times situations where
they want to own all of the photographer's images, asking for more rights
(and paying less money). So, though the pie has gotten bigger and people are
using more and more photographs than ever before, there is more competition
and the slices are getting smaller.
Right now the industry seems to be competing against itself with photographers
giving away rights and stock agencies taking bigger and bigger pieces out of
the photographers because they realize that photographers will eat their young.
Even organizations like AP are now telling photographers they must pay for their
own equipment and are paying less expenses. The New York Times pulled similar
shenanigans last year and though photographers rebelled for a hot minute or
two, too many of them crossed the picket line and they all lost.
Even the Art Directors don't care if you're in business next year.
The individual photographer is no longer indispensable. Now it's all about
low bid.
What are the results? Probably prices will come down. When a photographer has
to compete with Getty, The New York Times, and ad agencies, some will go down
with the ship while the more inventive and enterprising will find new ways to
make a living in photography and will survive--as will the industry.
--Rosalind Smith
A Stone Age Wish: More Concentration On Image Quality Than Megapixel
Count
We have to remember that we are still in the "Stone Age" of digital
photography. The first prediction is more a wish. I hope that the manufacturers
of cameras will more and more concentrate on image quality than on the pure
megapixel race. Cameras have more megapixels than most people will ever need.
The Fuji FinePix S3 is a first attempt to sacrifice resolution in favor of improvement
in the dynamic range of digital SLRs.
Imaging software is also only in its infancy and future software will allow
to correct many imaging defects. The future camera is a combination of optics
and correction software.
--Uwe Steinmueller
Further Integration Of Film And Digital
What's in the future? In the workshop teaching profession, I find an equal
number of students using film and digital cameras. Many pros are going back
to using film in addition to using digital as a back-up as many have lost work,
especially assignment work, due to hardware failure. Many photographers, amateur
and professional, are questioning the readability of media five, 10, or 20 (and
longer) years from now. Many photographers who extolled the many virtues of
digital are now admitting that film is better. Of course, it's still and
will always be a debatable issue. It's become clear that film is more
archival. For stock photography, the Canon EOS-1D Mark II (8.5 megapixels) is
acceptable for digital submissions. Therefore, stock photographers will not
be likely to flock to purchasing any camera beyond the Canon EOS-1Ds and Mark
II, the Nikon D2X, and the Fuji FinePix S3. Nikon just announced a new film
camera, the F6, and the Hasselblad Xpan is a very popular 35mm film camera.
Fuji's new Velvia 100 (film) is outstanding.
Of course, the truly great thing about digital, which sets it apart, is that
you can view your work immediately (instant feedback), and it is an excellent
teaching tool. You save on film and processing, as we all know. With the rapidly
changing technology, film appears to be more archival and cannot be accidentally
deleted.
I use film and digital cameras, as do many other pros.
What's in the future? Probably, a further integration of these two mediums
by serious amateur and professional photographers, and more on the epic struggle
of film vs. digital!
--Tony Sweet
Megapixel Race Isn't Slowing Down; Slowdown In High-End Camera
Sales
As we get deeper and deeper into the digital age, it's getting pretty
obvious that the megapixel race has no signs of slowing down. On one hand, progress
leads to more quality within the camera, but on the other hand, high-end users
of these big ticket digital SLRs are finding it hard to keep up with this fast-paced
technology by trading equipment in every six months or so. The end result, I'm
afraid, will be a slowdown in camera sales especially in the $8000 range until
this race settles down into a comfortable sensor size.
The reproduction of photographs will gain steadily especially when it's
getting so easy to print photos into larger sizes. Eventually I predict there
will be a line of specialized computers and monitors dedicated, set up, and
calibrated just for in-house printing chores. Film will not fade away for some
time as witnessed by Nikon's commitment to their new F6 and Canon's
redesigned EOS ELAN 7NE line of handy pro-type cameras. As photographers we
still have plenty to look forward to in the very near future.
--Stan Trzoniec
Only Good Times Ahead...
Digital cameras, flashes, and other accessories are becoming so refined that
it's totally impractical to "do-it-yourself." I believe that
more and more photographers will be relying on automatic built-ins to their
equipment, knowing that they can't process information as quickly as their
new equipment. They will also know how to make adjustments when the automatic
equipment can't cope with exposing properly when using white and/or black
backgrounds.
Photographers are returning to more traditional photography, realizing that
sales are greatly increased when appealing to people of all ages. Photographic
education is on the rise again.
Digital lighting systems such as Photogenic's new 800 ws Photomaster will
allow photographers to carry lighting systems on location, using them for both
quality portraits and putting them to use again to light the background for
reception pictures.
Carrying cases are being adapted to be more practical and lightweight, complying
with new airline regulations. Digital effects with programs like Photoshop are
becoming more practical and less obtrusive.
Although digital printers are becoming better and more practical, more photographers
will be relying on custom color labs to lighten their production load. More
framers will follow the lead of Levin Picture Frames and make available ready-made
frames to fit the size of digital cameras' images.
Websites are becoming a staple among photographers. They will have much less
gimmicks and be more easily read.
Shutterbug will continue to grow in strength, quality information, and practical
approaches to new trends in photography.
--Monte Zucker
- Log in or register to post comments